EUR to INR (EUR/INR) on the four-hour chart, the euro to Rupee is still losing ground, trading below the50,100, and 200 simple moving averages. However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is once again approaching the 30 level, indicating that the market is approaching oversold territory.
Some support can be found at the daily low of 88.2550, which is also the lowest level since June. It is followed by 87.101, an April resistance line.
Further down, the pair will find 88.256 and 88.571. Resistance is at 88.4636, followed by 88.1134,88.046, and 88.3834–all of which have capped EUR/INR on its way down in the last week.
EUR to INR (EUR/INR) technical key levels
| Pivot Points | Technical Key levels |
|---|---|
| S3 | 88.4621 |
| S2 | 88.3842 |
| S1 | 88.3723 |
| Pivot | 88.2515 |
| R1 | 88.2086 |
| R2 | 88.1268 |
| R3 | 88.0962 |
The dollar fell on Friday as a result of risk aversion. However, it ended the week with gains against the majority of its major competitors.
According to the monthly employment report, the United States added 860,000 new jobs in June, but the unemployment rate rose to 5.9 percent. The dollar rose immediately after the release, but fell short of the close as stocks soared.
EUR to INR (EUR/INR) hourly moving average
| Moving Average | Technical Key levels |
|---|---|
| 10 | 88.2689 |
| 20 | 88.2701 |
| 50 | 88.2475 |
| 100 | 88.2953 |
| 200 | 88.3494 |
| 300 | 88.4060 |
| 500 | 88.5021 |
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Weekly Market forecast
Concerns about the resurgence of coronavirus cases have recently dampened demand for the pound. Despite the fact that a large proportion of the UK population has received at least oneCOVID-19 vaccine, the Delta strain is rapidly spreading across the country.
On the plus side, the number of hospitalizations and deaths has remained stable, supporting the government’s decision to fully reopen. The UK’s macroeconomic calendar was light last week, and it has little to offer in the coming days.
On Monday, Markit will release the final version of the June Services PMI, which is expected to remain unchanged at 61.7.
USD/JPY falls from an intraday high to 111.12, up 0.07 percent on the day, amid early Monday trading. As a result, the JPY pair remains within a two-week-long ascending trend channel formation, while fading the bounce off the 100-HMA.
Given the bearish Momentum line, the quote is likely to retest the key moving average near the 111.00 level. However, the pair’s further weakness will be called into question by the stated channel’s support line, which is located around 110.70.
The USD/CAD is defending the 1.2300 level as traders lick their wounds following the heaviest losses in two weeks, which occurred on Friday.
However, the Loonie pair prints a corrective pullback around 1.2330 as oil prices, Canada’s main export, fall amid mixed signals from members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC).
The subdued market condition, combined with a lack of new catalysts, is also contributing to the rebound.
During Monday’s Asian session, USD/CHF bids rise to0.9218, with an intraday high of 0.9223. As a result, the Swiss currency (CHF) pair reverses from the 10-day SMA (DMA) to consolidate the previous day’s losses, which were the heaviest in a month.
Nonetheless, the quote maintains the 13-day-old trend line breakdown that was depicted on Friday.
The AUD/USD is still mildly offered, down 0.15 percent intraday around 0.7515 in the early hours of Monday. As a result, the Aussie pair pays little attention to the latest data from Australia and China amid gloomy market sentiment.
Caixin Services PMI in China fell short of the 55.7 expected and 55.1 prior to 50.3.
Earlier in the day, Australia’s Retail Sales for May surpassed the 0.1 percent preliminary forecast to rise to 0.4 percent, while activity data from the Commonwealth Bank and AiG Performance of Construction Index showed mixed results for June
Gold (XAU/USD) breaks a three-day uptrend on Monday, despite a sluggish Asian session. Nonetheless, the yellow metal is trading at$1,785, down 0.15 percent intraday as of press time.
As a result, gold prices are following the S&P 500 Futures as market participants reassess Friday’s risk-on mood amid a light calendar and the coronavirus (COVID-19) woes.
Furthermore, gold is likely to be under pressure if there is a sustained period of strong US data in the coming weeks, which should support the greenback.
However, the greenback is expected to ease off in the immediate aftermath of Friday’s US jobs report, which markets interpreted as “goldilocks,” favoring higher beta currencies.
Weekly Global Market Sentiments (EUR/INR)
A combination of strong US data, delta Covid-19 flows, hawkish Fed speakers, and the expectation of a healthy Nonfarm Payrolls report on Friday aided the greenback’s strong narrative in financial markets on Wednesday.
Fed Chairman Robert Kaplan reiterated his hawkish stance, saying, “I’d like to taper sooner than the end of the year.’
Headline inflation in the Eurozone was 1.9 percent, falling short of the European Central Bank’s target, but is expected to rise back above it.
The figure had no effect on the euro. In the United States, the ADP employment report came in slightly higher than expected. Following the release of the figures, the US dollar remained strong.
The Non-Farm Payroll report will be the most important employment report on Friday. Manufacturing data and weekly jobless claims reports are due in the United States on Thursday. The final PMI readings are due in Europe.
The Bank of England’s Haldane comments aided the pound. He reiterated that QE should be scaled back in light of the economy and the central bank’s balance sheet.
Haldane is resigning from his position. His replacement, as well as comments from other BoE officials, may cause volatility in the pound’s crosses.
Nonfarm payrolls Data
The US economic data came in above expectations, but it was not enough to spark a rally in the greenback. According to the ADP report, the private sector added 692K jobs, exceeding the market consensus of 600K.
Jobless claims and the PMI are due on Thursday. The Tankan report is due in Japan, as is the Chinese Caixin Manufacturing PMI.
After snapping a two-day uptrend the previous day, USD/CAD has remained sidelined around 1.2400. Nonetheless, the quote remains near the weekly high as the US dollar strengthens and oil rises.
On the other hand, Canada’s GDP recovered in April, falling from -0.8 percent to -0.3 percent. However, the monthly growth figures remained lower than the previously revised 1.3 percent.
In other news, WTI regained$74.00, up 0.10 percent intraday around $73.50 by press time, thanks to a higher-than-expected inventory draw and OPEC+ chatter ahead of today’s meeting.
Looking ahead, the Australian trade figures for May and the China Caixin Manufacturing PMI for June will provide immediate direction to the pair, not to mention the covid updates and other risk-related headlines.
However, the day’s main focus will be on the US ISM Manufacturing PMI and Jobless Claims, which will provide clearer indicators for tomorrow’s US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP).
During early Thursday, gold (XAU/USD) consolidates the previous day’s recovery moves to re-establish an intraday low of$1,767, down 0.20 percent on the day.
Quarter-end positioning and lower-than-expected US Treasury yields appeared to have triggered gold’s corrective pullback on Wednesday. However, rising coronavirus (COVID-19) fears have put a safe-haven bid under the US dollar, weighing on gold.
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